PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF TSUNAMI ON THE COAST OF EGYPT NEAR THE EL DABAA NPP CONSTRUCTION SITE
A. I. Zaytsev, S. M. Dmitriev, A. A. Kurkin, E. N. Pelinovsky
VANT. Ser.: Mat. Mod. Fiz. Proc 2019. Вып.2. С. 81-89.
The need to assess the risk of tsunami on the Egyptian coast is associated with the El Dabaa NPP construction project (coordinates 28,5270° E, 31,1032° N), the tender for which has been won by the Russian corporation Rosatom. To carry out the long-term tsunami risk analysis, we used the popular PTHA method based on the statistical analysis of a great number of real and predicted earthquakes and subsequent simulations of tsunami waves triggered by hypothesized earthquakes. It is shown that the predicted water rise level in the region of the NPP makes 6 ± 2 m for the period of 10 thousand years.Keywords: tsunami, long-term prediction, NPP, Egypt.
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